採用MMT恐掀巨浪,並引發史上最大規模財富損失

人民幣交易與研究2019-09-05 09:38:24


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著名投資分析專家約翰·莫爾丁 (John Mauldin)近日撰文稱,許多聰明、見多識廣的思想家都認為,現代貨幣理論(MMT)可能在未來10年內付諸實踐。而如果人們嘗試使用該理論,則將結束美元的儲備貨幣地位,併產生失控的通貨膨脹。這將從本質上摧毀“嬰兒潮一代”退休的能力,就像今天大多數人想象的那樣。他還指出,如果MMT真的付諸實踐,他將重新配置投資組合,並大舉投資黃金、房地產和一些生物科技公司。


圖片 | Pixabay

前所未有的刺激


許多人都讀過我對本世紀20年代末美國債務規模或達45萬億美元的分析。當我開始談論採取20萬億美元額外量化寬鬆政策的可能性時,這個問題顯然讓一些人感到不安。

Many participants had read my analysis of the potential for $45 trillion worth of US debt by the end of the 2020s.When I started talking about the potential for $20 trillion of additional quantitative easing, it was clear the question made some uncomfortable.


人們普遍認為兩黨都無法平衡預算。特朗普和國會之間的最新“協議”在未來兩年增加了3200億美元的開支。之前的“自動減支”協議至少曾試圖限制支出,但現已被拋諸腦後。與實際情況相比,目前的赤字預測似乎是温和的。

There was general agreement that neither political party can balance the budget. The latest “deal” between Trump and Congress raised spending $320 billion over the next two years. The previous “sequester” deal that at least tried to limit spending is out the window. Current deficit projections will seem mild compared to what we actually get.


正如我幾周前所説,根據國會預算辦公室今年早些時候的預測,假設出現一次經濟衰退,到本世紀20年代末,美國國家債務將升至近45萬億美元。這項新協議將在這個基礎上再增加至少1.5萬億到2萬億美元。如果出現第二次衰退,我們預計這個數字將超過50萬億美元。

As I said a few weeks ago, using CBO projections from earlier this year and assuming one recession, the national debt would rise to almost $45 trillion by the end of the 2020s. This new deal will add at least another $1.5 to $2 trillion to that amount. If there is a second recession, we would be looking at north of $50 trillion.


我們連用於償還聯邦債務的40萬億美元資金都沒有,更不要説50萬億了。它將佔用所有原本為生產性民營企業提供的資金,並大幅降低國內生產總值(GDP)增長率。這就是我預計會出現大規模、目前難以想象的量化寬鬆的原因。

We don’t have $40 trillion, let alone $50 trillion, to put into federal debt. It would crowd out all funding for productive private enterprises and sharply reduce GDP growth. Which is why I expect to see massive, currently inconceivable amounts of quantitative easing.


不可思議的想法


悽慘且黯淡?也不算是。這個數字來自美國國會預算辦公室。從政治上講,他們不可能預測經濟衰退,所以他們並沒有。我也承認,從統計數據上看,預測經濟衰退也是不可能的,所以他們也沒有。

Doom and gloom? Not really. The math is from the Congressional Budget Office. It is politically impossible for them to project a recession, so they don’t. I would also admit that it is also statistically impossible to predict a recession, so they don’t. 


假設經濟衰退發生在2020年或2022年,在下圖中,你可以看到赤字和收入的變化。

Assuming recession in either 2020 or 2022, you can see what happens to the deficits and revenues on the charts below.


第一張圖表假設2020年經濟出現衰退。請注意,到2025年左右,財政收入將少於強制性支出,然後再也不會超過強制性支出加國防支出。到本世紀20年代末,強制性支出將再次上升,從而消耗所有税收收入。同樣地,這些還並未包含大量的預算外開支。

This first graph assumes a recession in 2020. Note that revenues fall below mandatory spending by the middle of the decade, then never get back above mandatory spending plus defense spending. Then by the end of the 2020s, mandatory spending will again rise to consume all tax revenue. And again, these don’t include significant off-budget spending.



下一個圖表假設經濟衰退發生在2022年,而不是2020年。除了赤字要到2023年才開始達到2萬億美元,其他情況基本相同。同樣,這也使用了國會預算辦公室的預測,並按照2008年至2009年下降以及之後回升的百分比調整了收入。

This next graph assumes recession in 2022 instead of 2020. The pattern is basically the same, except that the $2-trillion deficits don’t begin until 2023. Again, this uses actual CBO projections and adjusts revenues by the same percentage they fell in 2008–2009, and recovered thereafter.



未來看起來很嚴峻


許多人顯然和我一樣沮喪。讓我告訴你,我已經不再沮喪了。我非常擔心美國的未來,以及我們的孩子和退休人員的未來。

Many people were clearly just as frustrated as I am. Let me tell you, I am way past frustration. I am seriously worried for the future of the Republic and our children and retirees.


如果我們引入MMT,結果正如我們所有人所認為的那樣,我認為一些州將有50%的可能希望脱離聯邦政府。你這麼認為嗎? 當你以“人人享有正義和平等”的名義推行破壞社會結構的政策時,那些在這一進程中受損的一方將予以反擊。

If we introduce MMT and the result is what we all think it will be, I think there is a 50–50 chance some states will want to secede from the union. Do you agree or disagree? When you undertake policies that will destroy the very fabric of society in the name of “justice and equality for all,” those damaged in the process will push back.


我預測,一場史無前例的危機將導致歷史上規模最大的一場財富損失。而且,大多數投資者完全沒有意識到目前正在積聚的壓力。

I predict an unprecedented crisis that will lead to the biggest wipeout of wealth in history. And most investors are completely unaware of the pressure building right now.(完)


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