經濟學人:馬雲的成功不可複製

經濟學商業人評論2018-10-12 20:24:41

Alibaba

Ma where he came from?

後無來者

No entrepreneur has defined China's transformation like Jack Ma. His success will be hard to repeat

沒有哪個企業家像那樣定義了的轉型。他的成功難以複製

The most recognisable face of Chinese capitalism belongs to Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba, an e-commerce juggernaut matched in size only by Amazon.

中國資本主義最知名的面孔當屬阿里巴巴創始人馬雲。只有亞馬遜可在規模上與他創立的電子商務巨頭比肩。

Mr Ma, who launched Alibaba from a small apartment in Hangzhou in 1999, is an emblem of China’s extraordinary economic transformation.

1999年,馬雲在杭州一間小公寓裏成立了阿里巴巴,他本人象徵了中國非凡的經濟轉型。

This week's announcement that he will step down as the firm's chairman a year from now, to concentrate on philanthropy, was greeted with comparative calm by investors.

上週他宣佈將在一年後辭去集團董事局主席的職務,專注慈善。投資者對此反應較為平靜。

He stopped being chief executive in 2013;

馬雲自2013年起就不再擔任首席執行官;

Alibaba's share price has more than doubled since its initial public offering, the world's largest-ever, in 2014.

阿里巴巴於2014年上市時,融資規模為史上最大,至今股價已翻了一倍多。

But one question presents itself: could China produce another story to match his? The answer is almost certainly not.

那麼問題來了:中國還能上演一個可與他比擬的故事嗎?答案是幾乎肯定不能。

There are some very good reasons for that.

這麼説有幾個非常充分的理由。

China's own rise is an unrepeatable one.

中國的崛起本身就不可重複。

When Mr Ma, then an English-language teacher, launched Alibaba, the country was still gearing up to join the World Trade Organisation.

曾是英語老師的馬雲推出阿里巴巴時,中國還在為入世做準備。

Its GDP per head, in terms of purchasing-power parity, stood at under $3,000; it is now more than six times higher.

按購買力平價計算,當時的人均GDP不到3000美元,現在則高出6倍多。

The internet was still young, too.

互聯網那時也才剛起步。

Less than 1% of Chinese had access to the web back then, compared with some 36% of Americans.

當時只有不到1%的中國人可以上網,而美國人約為36%。

As incomes grew and connections proliferated, Mr Ma took full advantage.

人們收入逐步增長、互聯網迅速普及,馬雲充分利用了這樣的有利條件。

Thousands of small businesses have since flourished on Alibaba's platforms.

從那時開始,成千上萬的小企業在阿里巴巴的平台上蓬勃發展。

About 1m merchants trade in its virtual emporiums.

約有100萬商家在其虛擬集市中開展交易。

Its services have helped push China's economy towards consumption-led growth.

阿里巴巴提供的服務幫助推動中國經濟走上了消費型增長之路。

Last year it boasted sales of $25bn on Singles'Day, China's equivalent of Black Friday (when Americans spent a measly $5bn).

去年“雙十一”當天其平台的銷售額高達250億美元(美國人在“黑色星期五”當天才花了50億美元)。

It has transformed logistics and finance, as well as retailing.

除了零售業,阿里巴巴還改變了物流和金融業。

Last year Alibaba delivered an average of 55m packages a day;

去年,阿里巴巴平均每天遞送5500萬個包裹;

its financial offshoot, Ant Financial, accounts for more than half of China's vast mobile-payments market.

其金融業務部門螞蟻金服在中國龐大的移動支付市場中佔據了過半江山。

Its reach is so great that many startups decide to work with Alibaba rather than strike out alone.

阿里巴巴影響力巨大,許多創業公司因此決定與它合作,而不是單槍匹馬出征。

But more has changed than the structure of China's economy and the clout of digital giants like Alibaba.

然而,發生了變化的不只是中國的經濟結構和阿里巴巴等數字巨頭的影響力。

Politics has changed, too.

政治也已不同往日。

Alibaba thrived partly thanks to Mr Ma's skilful dealings with China's ruling Communist Party, with which he cultivated both closeness and stand-offishness

阿里巴巴蓬勃發展的原因之一是馬雲善於經營與統治者的關係——既親密又保持距離

("Love them, don't marry them," he once said of the government).

(他曾説:“要跟政府戀愛,但別跟政府結婚。”)

China is putting its corporate champions at the service of its ambitions to compete globally in high-tech industries.

中國正在利用領軍企業為自己在全球高科技產業中競爭的雄心服務。

Alibaba's task is to use artificial intelligence to improve cities.

阿里巴巴的任務是利用人工智能改善城市。

Through state-backed venture-capital funds, the government is pouring money into industries that were once the preserve of the private sector.

通過國家支持的風投基金,政府正在向曾經專屬於私營部門的行業投入資金。

this year America prevented Ant's purchase of MoneyGram, a money-transfer firm, on national-security grounds.

今年,美國以國家安全為由阻止了螞蟻金服收購匯款公司速匯金。

The reality was always more complicated, but Mr Ma embodies an idea of China as market-driven and open.

現實總是更為複雜,但馬雲代表的是市場驅動和開放的中國。

That idea has faded.

而這個形象已逐漸失色。

None of this is to say that enterprise is fizzling in China.

這並不是説企業經營在中國正趨於衰落。

Indeed one of Mr Ma's legacies is a shift to a culture that values startups more than ever.

事實上,馬雲的遺產之一就是帶領人們轉向一種比以往任何時候都更重視創業公司的文化。

His charisma and folksy advice have earned him cult-like status among the country's entrepreneurs.

他的魅力和接地氣的建議讓他在中國企業家中享有神一般的地位。

Venture capitalists are lavishing money on hundreds of newcomers, in industries from biotech to electric vehicles.

從生物技術到電動汽車等行業,風險資本家正在向各個領域裏的成百上千家新企業投入大量資金。

Small private firms will continue to flourish.

小型私營企業還將繼續蓬勃發展。

But it is harder to be as disruptive today as Mr Ma was 20 years ago.

但是比起20年前,今天更難產生像馬雲當年那樣的顛覆性影響。

That is partly because his own creation is so dominant.

部分原因是他自己的創新成果如今佔據瞭如此顯赫的市場地位。

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